June 18 2008 – Fran O'Sullivan: No future in man shortage
Is there a 'man drought' in New Zealand?
Why do Kiwis and Aussies show off to each other about how well their expat kids - particularly young men - are doing in overseas capitals?
Most people in the business world have heard colleagues (if not themselves) talk about the great job their son or daughter has got at a top London legal or accounting firm, the fun their offspring are having as baristas in Florence, or as scientists in the United States.
It's what demographer Bernard Salt refers to as the "Adelaide disease". Parents give themselves a pat on the back because they have "catapulted their young out of the country" - a 21st century version of cultural cringe.
The upshot is that the god of demography is certainly not smiling on either country: Particularly New Zealand which faces a major contraction in the traditional working population (15-64 years) by 2022 and is also experiencing a "man drought" as more young men stay overseas longer than their female counterparts to pursue international opportunities.
When the man drought first emerged, news stories focused on the difficulties young women might experience finding a male partner.
But the workforce effect is more profound. As the graph indicates there are 10 per cent less men than women at age 35 - the time when many are coming into their peak earning and tax-paying period.
The problem confronting policy-makers - as well as employers - is that too many New Zealanders and Australians are now spending their best taxpaying years overseas, thus providing little return on the 25 years of taxpayer funds that have gone into their education and upbringing.
If they stay away until retirement and then return as superannuitants the burden on remaining taxpayers is compounded. The upshot is there will be a strong demand for the traditional retirement age to be pushed out well beyond 65.
Salt - a KPMG partner based in Melbourne - presented a compelling case to the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum.
New migrants are being attracted. But the people both countries are losing are among the best and brightest. A number of avenues were suggested by forum participants for reversing the trend:
Salt contends these "tactical responses" will not be enough.
Should you have further enquiries on immigration to the UK, NZ, Australia or the USA visa, we will undertake a complimentary assessment of your eligibility. Email us at;
info@amblercollins.com
